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Abstract While snowpack is the main influence on Rio Grande water year streamflow, spring hydroclimate can play a role in moderating this influence in a subset of years. Through an investigation of the relationship between winter snowpack and spring hydroclimate conditions and Rio Grande streamflow, we find low snowpack years with relatively cool, wet springs coincide with slightly above median streamflow in 18% of the years in the instrumental record (1936–2018), while the opposite conditions occur during 24% of years. Over this period, an increase in years with low snowpack/cool wet springs is evident, likely due to a significant decreasing trend in snowpack. We analyze two 15‐century tree‐ring reconstructions to provide long‐term context for the variable relationship between snowpack and spring hydroclimate. Results suggests irregular but quasi‐multidecadal periods when spring conditions may have moderated the effect of a relatively dry winter or reduced the effect of a relatively wet winter. The reconstructions also provide context for the observed trend in the increasing importance of spring conditions over the instrumental period, which appears to be related to both natural climate variability and climate change. In the Rio Grande basin, as mountain snowpack declines due to warming temperatures, spring conditions may be playing an increasingly important role for water resources, at least in the near term. 

Abstract California’s water resources rely heavily on cool‐season (November–March) precipitation in the Sierra Nevada. Interannual variability is highly volatile and seasonal forecasting has little to no skill, making water management particularly challenging. Over 1902–2020, Sierra Nevada cool‐season precipitation totals exhibited significant 2.2‐ and 13–15‐year cycles, accounting for approximately 40% of total variability and perhaps signifying potential as seasonal forecasting tools. However, the underlying climate dynamics are not well understood and it is unclear whether these cycles are stable over the long term. We use tree rings to reconstruct Sierra Nevada cool‐season precipitation back to 1400. The reconstruction is skillful, accounting for 55%–74% of observed variability and capturing the 20th‐century 2.2‐ and 13–15‐year cycles. Prior to 1900, the reconstruction indicates no other century‐long periods of significant spectral power in the 2.2‐ or 13–15‐year bands. The reconstruction does indicate significant cyclicity over other extended periods of several decades or longer, however, with dominant periodicities in the ranges of 2.1–2.7 and 3.5–8 years. The late 1700s through 1800s exhibited the highest‐amplitude cycles in the reconstruction, with periodicities of 2.4 and 5.7–7.4 years. The reconstruction should serve to caution against extrapolating the observed 2.2‐ and 13–15‐year cycles to guide future expectations. On the other hand, observations and the reconstruction suggest that interannual variability of Sierra Nevada cool‐season precipitation is not a purely white noise process and research should aim to diagnose the dynamical drivers of extended periods of cyclicity in this critical natural resource.